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Might Shohei Ohtani at any point break Aaron Judge’s AL homer record? He’s in front of Yankees slugger’s 2022 speed

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Today’s baseball fans frequently ponder the following: How much more history is Shohei Ohtani capable of creating on his own? The two-way star’s career is full of unprecedented feats that are unlikely to be matched in the near future. As a result, there is already a strong case to be made that he is the most talented player in the history of Major League Baseball because no one else has performed as well as he has for this long and against competition of this caliber. So, realistically, what single-season accomplishment does Ohtani still have to accomplish?

Ohtani has given a response through the main portion of the time by situating himself as a genuine danger to break Aaron Judge’s year-old single-season American Association homer record of 62. Indeed, Ohtani was moving faster than Judge throughout Tuesday’s game, which he pitched but missed due to a blister. While Judge had homered multiple times in the Yankees’ initial 88 group games, Ohtani homered 31 groups in the Heavenly messengers’ initial 88 group games. In the following contest, Judge would hit his 31st home run.

As can be seen, Ohtani was a long way off from hitting his 25th home run. His noteworthy June has since permitted him to get up to speed and try and outperform Judge’s speed. It’s become sensible to inquire: Is Ohtani really capable of surpassing Judge? At CBS Sports, we made the decision to use a spreadsheet to find out.

If you are familiar with projection systems, you are aware that it is frequently a fool’s errand to divide a player’s current performance among as many games as possible. That disregards the idea of regression to the mean, without getting too geeky. By comparing a player’s performance to that of the league as well as their previous performances, the best projection systems attempt to determine a player’s “true talent level.” The thought is, basically, that outrageous exhibitions will generally address eventually.

We are going to provide two roadmaps and, at the very least, leave out the regression section in order to keep things accessible. One depends on Ohtani’s ongoing grand slam rate – – which is, as you might have speculated, raised versus his standard. The other is based on his season-to-season averages throughout his career. This method shows how difficult it is to hit 62 home runs and is also easier for laypeople to understand. To wit:

You might be curious about how Ohtani managed to play 88 team games ahead of Judge’s schedule without anticipating breaking the record. One major factor is at play: From that point on, Judge worked on his best home runs. In other words, in his first 376 plate appearances, Judge homered 31 times. Over the next 320 plate appearances, Judge hit 31 home runs.

Judge homered in 8.9% of his seasonal plate appearances due to that second-half barrage. To date, Ohtani has hit a home run in 8.1% of his plate appearances. Even though the gap between those rates and Ohtani’s projected total and Judge’s record is roughly the same, it adds up to about five or six additional home runs over the course of 650 plate appearances.

Is it possible that Ohtani is about to perform his best slugging? Yes. Based on his career norms and other factors, it is simply not possible. Low-likelihood situations unfurl constantly, in actuality, and in baseball. For example, Judge was extremely unlikely to break the record until he actually did it. Even so, Ohtani is almost certainly not going to succeed. Roger Maris’ record lasted for 61 years for a reason: It is difficult to homer in about 9% of your annual plate appearances.

Participating in nearly every game of your team’s season is also difficult. Due to his workload as a pitcher, Ohtani will face an even greater obstacle in that regard than Judge or anyone else in recent memory. Even though a blister and a cracked fingernail were the only issues that kept him from making his last two starts, his absences serve as a reminder of how hard his job is. He has made it appear to be simple, but it is difficult to expect a single player to pitch and hit at an elite level year after year.

Will Ohtani break Judge’s record? Based on the available data and historical precedent, we would guess not. However, the fact that Ohtani is baseball’s ultimate outlier is one thing that can be written about to summarize the Ohtani experience.

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Shohei Ohtani Gets Standing Ovation After Achieving 50-50 Milestone, Then Hits 52-52

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After securing the first 50-50 season in MLB history on Friday, Shohei Ohtani made a triumphant homecoming to Dodger Stadium. He continued doing what he does best after that.

The Los Angeles Dodgers player began the 52-52 club with a home run and a steal against the Colorado Rockies, after the teams reached 50-50 and 51-51 in the same game. In the fifth inning, Ohtani faced Rockies starter Kyle Freeland. He worked the count full before taking a pitch at his armpits to deep center field.

Few batters possess the ability to hit a pitch that high and blast it 423 feet in the opposite direction.

After a double and a single two innings later, Ohtani advanced to second base on Mookie Betts’ first pitch.

Ohtani broke Rickey Henderson’s record of 13 home runs in a single game set in 1986 by recording both a stolen base and a home run for the 14th time this season.

After going 9 for 10 with four home runs, two doubles, three steals, six runs, and 12 RBI in his last two games, Ohtani is now one home run behind Aaron Judge for the MLB lead. The majority of that output occurred on Thursday night against the Marlins, when Ohtani not only reached 50-50 with style, but he also had one of the best offensive outings in MLB history.

Ohtani combined an incredible season-long feat with the 16th 10-RBI game in MLB history in the same game that he hit his 49th, 50th, and 51st home runs of the year and stole his 50th and 51st bases. In addition, it was the first three-homer, two-steal game in MLB history, all on the anniversary of Ohtani’s unbelievable—that he didn’t have Tommy John surgery—on September 19, 2023.

The only downside of that magical night was that it happened on the road. Still, Ohtani received a curtain call at LoanDepot Park in Miami. Dodgers fans made an effort to show their support by giving him a standing ovation before his first at-bat on Friday, which earned him a wave in return.

Though it’s unclear how far into untested terrain Ohtani can go in homers and steals, he may have reached 50-50.

In addition, there’s the playoff issue. With eight games remaining, the 92-62 Dodgers have a four-game lead over the San Diego Padres for the NL West championship. They also secured their spot in the playoffs on Thursday. They’ll need to get beyond a string of pitching injuries if they hope to give Ohtani a ring, regardless of where they finish in his debut postseason.

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Jessica Pegula Upsets Iga Swiatek as Jannik Sinner Advances to US Open Semi-Final Against Draper

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At the end of her standout 2022 season, Jessica Pegula faced a frustrating trend—reaching the quarter-finals in three of the four major tournaments but losing each time to the top seed. After yet another loss to Iga Swiatek at the US Open, Pegula humorously arrived at her press conference with a beer in hand, joking, “I’m trying to pee for doping… although it does help ease the loss.” The lighthearted moment went viral, reflecting her upbeat attitude despite repeatedly falling short of a semi-final spot.

It took two more years and six heartbreaking quarter-final defeats for Pegula to finally break through. In a fitting turn of events, she defeated Swiatek, the world No. 1, 6-2, 6-4 at the US Open, securing her first-ever Grand Slam semi-final appearance. “I’ve lost so many times, I just kept losing,” Pegula said, acknowledging her past defeats to top players. “I just needed to get there again and win the match. Thank God I was able to do it and finally say I am a semi-finalist.”

In the men’s draw, top-seeded Jannik Sinner is the last Grand Slam champion standing. He advanced to the semi-finals after defeating Daniil Medvedev in a hard-fought match, 6-2, 1-6, 6-1, 6-4, setting up a semi-final showdown with Great Britain’s Jack Draper.

Pegula’s triumph over Swiatek was particularly impressive. She employed a smart, tactical approach by hitting deep, flat shots down the middle, limiting Swiatek’s angles and attacking opportunities. Her movement was sharp, absorbing Swiatek’s aggressive strikes and patiently waiting for her own chances to go on the offensive.

While Pegula was on top of her game, Swiatek struggled with her serve and timing throughout the match, ending with 41 unforced errors. “I didn’t find the right solution,” Swiatek admitted. “You’re not going to win if you make so many mistakes. It’s on me.”

Pegula’s victory also marks a historic moment for U.S. tennis, as she joins Emma Navarro, Taylor Fritz, and Frances Tiafoe in the semi-finals. This is the first time since 2003 that multiple American players have reached the semi-finals in both the women’s and men’s US Open draws. Pegula will face unseeded Karolína Muchová, who reached last year’s semi-finals before undergoing wrist surgery. Muchová advanced by defeating Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-1, 6-4.

In the men’s tournament, Sinner’s powerful groundstrokes and strong defense proved too much for Medvedev, who was below his best throughout the match. Although the momentum shifted wildly, with Sinner dominating the first set and Medvedev responding in the second, Sinner regained control in the third and fourth sets to claim victory. Medvedev, who hit 57 unforced errors, couldn’t keep up with Sinner’s intensity.

“It was very tough,” said Sinner after the match. “We knew it was going to be physical. I’m really happy.”

Sinner has now reached the semi-finals at all four Grand Slam tournaments, becoming the fourth active player and the only man under 35 to achieve this feat. His next challenge is Draper, a familiar opponent and good friend. The two have faced each other since their junior days and recently played doubles together at the Canadian Open.

“We are good friends off the court, so it’s going to be tough one,” Sinner said. “He’s playing incredibly well, so let’s see who plays better in a couple of days.”

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Texas Loses a Second Running back to an Injury that ends the Season

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Christian Clark, a true freshman, tore his Achilles tendon during practice on Monday, ending the team’s second season-ending injury at running back for No. 4 Texas, the school confirmed on Tuesday.

Six days after revealing that CJ Baxter, the starting quarterback for the first game of the previous campaign, would require season-ending knee surgery, Texas announced that Clark would have surgery and miss the rest of the campaign.

The Longhorns are down to three scholarship running backs as a result of the losses.

This season, Jaydon Blue—who has played in 23 games for Texas—is anticipated to carry the weight after rushing for 431 yards and three touchdowns. In the Longhorns’ College Football Playoff semifinal loss to Washington, he had four receptions for 45 yards and three kickoff returns for 80 yards.

The Longhorns have two players behind Blue: sophomore Jerrick Gibson, who was listed as the No. 2 running back and the No. 3 overall, and Quintrevion Wisner, a sophomore who participated in all 14 games last season on special teams.

In December, Clark, a four-star prospect from Phoenix’s Mountain Pointe High School, committed to Texas.

Although Gibson and Clark both stumbled during Saturday’s scrimmage in what he called a “welcome to college football moment,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian told reporters on Monday that both players were improving and were “further down the road than some may think.”

In a post-practice video chat with media on Tuesday night, Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers said of the injuries, “It definitely hurts to see that go down.” “Injuries do happen. It’s just a part of the game we play. I think [running backs coach Tashard] Choice and Coach Sark do a good job of recruiting good running backs that can ultimately fill in the position if needed. … I think we have guys that are going to be more than capable of stepping in and filling up those roles.”

After gaining confidence in his running ability, Ewers ran for five touchdowns last season, including 30- and 29-yard touchdown runs against Kansas and Baylor. Sarkisian said after the Kansas game that Ewers realized, “Man, maybe I’m a little faster than I thought.”

On Tuesday, Ewers stated that he would be more than willing to take on additional running responsibilities.

“Ultimately, I’m just trying to do whatever I can to help this team win football games,” Ewers stated. “So if that means I need to run more, so be it.”

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