The only way to predict the 2020 election is to use the math from the 2016 election. The most accurate polls in 2016 were the IBD and the Rasmussen Poll.
National polls now have President Trump up 5 points from his polling numbers on election day 2016. Trump has 47% compared to the 42% he had in 2016.
One anonymous voter said, “I would never admit to wanting Trump in a survey”. The voter implied that she is frightened that they might come hurt her or her children. Since protesters have been burning down churches, the Virgin Mary, and vandalizing Jesus and tearing down statues of Hispanic leaders such as Columbus, many voters are angry about the small 1% of the liberals who are leaning toward fascist styles of Communism and Bolshevism.
Using the 2016 math, Trump is set to win the same 30 states that he won in 2016, and will probably add Minnesota, Colorado and even Nevada.
10 More Reasons Trump Will Win
1) Trump’s Vision – Trump’s clear vision and policies have led to peace, prosperity, and no senseless wars. The creation of fair policies on immigration, trade, and energy independence have boosted the confidence of Trump voters and libertarians. Anyone can take 15 minutes to read President Trump’s Mt. Rushmore speech and his July 4th speeches to better comprehend his long-term policies, strategy, vision, and mission.
2) The Secret Trump Voter: A Pennsylvania Monmouth Poll shows (57%) believe there are a number of so-called secret voters in their communities who support Trump but won’t tell anyone about it. In 2016, that percentage was about 5% but it could be as high as 10% this year. The IBD Poll has Trump and Biden tied in May, and Biden up in July, but again, Trump voters are abstaining or not reporting.
3) No 3rd Party – There is no viable 3rd party candidate in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Minnesota, Florida, Ohio and many other states. Trump’s Republican support appears to be up over 5% in averages since 2016 which is a huge amount of enthusiasm and republican votes.
4) Peace and Prosperity: After many years of war and waste of spending offshore, working folks want Trump to continue to invest money in the health system, education, and infrastructure.
5) Promises Kept: The president has followed through with his promises and has greater than 90% support in his party according to latest Gallup Polls up an average of 5% from 2016.
6) Ohio and Florida: In 2018, Republicans won the governorship of Ohio and Florida. This is important as turnout was down in 2018. However, in 2020, the suburban vote will turn out in full again to support mainstream worker candidates such as Trump. If Democrats can present a better case for working families, they may gain support, but only time will tell.
7) Trump Diverse Support at a High: Trump’s support among workers and minorities including Hispanics and others has dramatically surpassed beyond Bush, Romney, and others. If Trump’s minority support holds up next year, they will render Trump unbeatable in November of 2020. Trump is presently polling higher than any other republican with minorities.
8) Proof of Failed Media Polls 2016 – Major news organizations and their experts said that Hillary Clinton had a 91% chance of winning in 2016. These old media outlets unwittingly misled their readers for over a year with polling that was horribly flawed. Clinton and her allies lost several billion dollars in campaign money in the 2016 election.
9) Biden Health Problems – Mr. Biden can’t participate in the debates with Trump due to ill-health. Biden had 2 brain surgeries and there seems to have been a later brain injury after 2018 due to a facelift or other accident.
10) Biden’s pick for Vice President – Biden and his VP pick creates vast problems for all voters. A pick from California or Illinois adds nothing to his electoral potential. Even Senator Warren was caught taking minority jobs from Hispanics and African-Americans for almost 40 years before being exposed that she was not a person of color.
If history is a lesson, the competent Senator George McGovern lost in the biggest landslide in history to President Nixon in 1972. President Nixon won 49 states and 520 electoral votes, and George won 17 votes. Nixon won on a law and order platform which was dedicated to jobs, safe streets, health care, elder care and social security, environmental protection, mitigating crime, border control and stopping tainted drug death, ending senseless wars, & limiting nuclear proliferation.
With the US Senate in 2020, it is believed that candidates like Senator Cory Gardner will win 50% or more of the Colorado vote because there are no viable independent or alternative republicans on the ballot and his strong Hispanic & Italian support. Hillary lost the popular vote in Colorado and in various other states in 2016 while still winning the electoral votes. Also, republican on the ballot for Senator in Arizona and New Mexico could also win as Trump is simultaneously on the ballot and the alternate-republican candidates are not on the ballot this year who sucked up 3-9% of the vote in 2016. These 2016 independent votes lean republican and might saliently sting the democrats in 2020.
The 2020 Prediction ? As of today, based on the existing economic and global variables, Trump wins 32 states or more to win the presidency again in 2020. That would be the 306 electoral votes Trump won in 2016, plus 9 from Colorado, and 10 from Minnesota. Thus, a predicted win by Trump by 325 electoral votes for Trump to his opponent’s Biden’s 213 electoral votes. Trump could also beat Biden in New Mexico and Nevada also as those votes in these 2 states were very close in 2016 and 3rd party candidates boosted Clinton to win 5 states that she may have lost without the alternative 3rd party republican candidates on the ballot.
Citations and Sources
Tracking Poll – https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_jul16?fullbrowser
Minority Support https://www.newsbreak.com/news/0OCpjylZ/tim-scott-predicts-black-support-for-donald-trump-to-increase-by-50-percent-in-2020
New York Times Experts say Clinton has 91% chance of Winning. http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2016/10/18/presidential-forecast-updates/newsletter.html
Secret Trump Vote – https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_071520/
Joe Biden Brian Surgeries and Facelifts – https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/its-obvious-cosmetic-surgeons-say-biden-had-facelift-before-2020-campaign
Biden Brain Surgeries https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/surgeon-who-operated-on-joe-biden-hes-better-now-than-before-brain-surgery
Nixon 1972 Platform – http://www.4president.org/brochu…/1972/nixon1972brochure.htm
Trump beats Romney with Minorities – https://www.forbes.com/sites/aviksaroy/2016/11/19/man-bites-dog-trump-did-better-with-minorities-than-mitt-romney-did-in-2012/#67a5b3bc35fd